Preflop Strategy

Starting hand charts aren't preflop strategy; they are a useful guide to get started, but going from there takes some understanding.

Tight play is correct, but how tight?

In general, you want to play slightly tighter than opponents. This way, you'll have a safe and easy edge against them. Here's are some common statistics worth remembering (all examples assume the hands go to showdown; figures approximate):

• 2 higher cards vs 2 lower cards wins 60% of the time. Example: A7 vs 56
• Larger pocket pair vs smaller pocket pair wins 80% of the time. Example: 33 vs 22
• Suitedness only adds 5% more value to a hand. Example: 56s wins 5% more than 56o against the field.
• 1 higher card and 1 lower card vs 2 middle cards wins 55% of the time. Example: A4 vs J9.

So how can we apply these?

First, we have to take into account the competition, which we can assume is going to be poor at the lower limits. Novice players tend to like suited cards and any ace when choosing hands outside of the premium hands. Here is where many players go wrong: they enter into the pot with a guy who plays any ace hand and any suited cards with... small suited connectors! That's such a mistake! The type of hands the fish will be playing are hands such as: Q5s, A3, etc. Willingly playing 45s against them means that you're already starting out as a 60/40 dog against their hand! While skill can make up for a lot in poker, there's simply no need to spot your opponent those kinds of odds. Instead, pick a range that is an even or natural favorite against your opponent. Against the typical novice who plays any suited cards and any ace, bigger unsuited cards go up in value, like: Q9, JT, K8, etc. Now you'll be entering into the pots as a slight favorite or 55/45 dog against your opponent. For example, 56 suited against A7 or Q5 suited is going to be a real uphill battle for you. However, Q9 against A7 or Q5 suited is actually very good for you in comparison.

So why do people consistently talk about "suited connectors"?

The better the opponent, the more they can hand-read and lay down a hand. However, there's a point where their hand may be too strong to lay down, such as two pair or better. In that case, having 30% equity in the pot (or more) is very valuable if your bets can't get them to fold. 30% equity is roughly the expectation of a suited connector to win after seeing the flop. Straights and flushes tend to leap-frog your opponents' holding, so if you can maneuver him off of a one-pair hand, it's likely to be profitable even if you do run up against a monster hand like a set/two pair/straight.

Novice players often can't fold a single pair, which means you're strictly throwing money away by betting into them with small suited connectors trying to hit a flush. Instead, take advantage of their incapacity to fold by value betting them with a larger pair or kicker.

Against better players who won't have kicker problems (these people will play only big aces like AT or better, KJ or better, etc), random big cards go down in value and suited connectors go up in value. This is because the random big cards will only lose you a lot of money when you're out-kicked, and an opponent playing big cards is less likely to have something on a small board like 589. On the small boards your suited connectors can easily be best, and your hand can be disguised if you do hit big against them.

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